UFC Vegas 24 - Fight Previews & Predictions

(Esther Lin/MMA Fighting)

#1 Robert Whittaker vs #8 Kelvin Gastelum

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Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum have been linked to each other many times throughout their Middleweight runs. The two were initially linked as the coaches of Season 28 of The Ultimate Fighter. Per tradition, the two were scheduled to fight following the season for Whittaker’s Middleweight Championship. Rob and Kelvin were cordial throughout the taping of the show, not engaging in the typical promotional trash talk. Whittaker smoked Gastelum in the annual Coaches Challenge, but Kelvin got revenge when Team Gastelum member Macy Chiasson took home the gold. February 9th, 2019 was the date for Whittaker’s 3rd Title defense and the first Championship opportunity for Kelvin. Both men made it through weigh-ins, but Whittaker was forced to withdraw from the fight in the morning of the event. It was one of the first times in UFC history the Main Event was cancelled on the day of the show. Whittaker required emergency surgery on a hernia that became unbearable during his weight cut. The storyline would end anticlimactically and Gastelum would never receive his Undisputed Title Shot. The two men’s paths would split from there. Whittaker would fight and lose to Israel Adesanya after Izzy defeated Gastelum for the Interim Belt. Gastelum would drop 2 more fights after losing to Izzy, being submitted by Jack Hermansson and outstruck by Darren Till. But Gastelum has since turned it around with a win over Ian Heinisch and Whittaker has bounced back with 2 wins since losing to Izzy. The resolution we all wanted 2 years ago is finally here. And as always, the toughest part is the prediction. Both these men are elite, Top 5 caliber Middlweights, but I’m actually pretty confident in Whittaker here. He has looked great in wins over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier. He has shown himself to still be improving and has made it clear he is the 2nd best Middleweight in the world. Gastelum’s last performance was great, but Whittaker seems like an unstoppable force right now. Give me Bobby Knuckles and a rematch with Stylebender.

Prediction: Whittaker, Unanimous Decision

Drakkar Klose vs #10 FW Jeremy Stephens

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I already played out the “Who the Fook is that Guy” joke in my fighter previews, so I won’t rely on it here. Longtime veteran Jeremy Stephens is making a return to Lightweight for the first time in almost a decade. He started his UFC career as a Lightweight, likely because it was the lowest weight division in the promotion at the time. After mixed results at 155, he moved down to 145 for some more mixed results. Jeremy is 15-17-1 throughout just his UFC career and 28-18 professionally. His fight Saturday will move him into 4th in All-Time UFC appearances. Jeremy has obviously done enough to stick around, but he has always struggled with the elite throughout his entire career. He struggled to get past the point of a talented prospect at 155 and developed into a gatekeeper of the Top 10 at Featherweight. But hey wait, isn’t there another guy in this fight? Drakkar Klose has been impressive during his shorter UFC run. He is 5-2 so far in the UFC, but like Stephens, has struggled in his most high profile appearances. Klose is coming off a loss in his biggest fight to date, his first chance at the rankings against Beniel Dariush. Klose controlled the first round and even almost finished Beniel, but Dariush came back to produce a highlight reel KO early in the 2nd. But Drakkar has shown his power both in the striking game and in the grappling with wins over veterans Bobby Green and Lando Vannata. Stephens, despite being a Featherweight, will be the most important fight of his life. If he can turn back Jeremy, he will finally have an established name to his resume. Thankfully for Klose, I think he gets it done. He is naturally big and strong for the division. Jeremy on the other hand, is moving up in weight. Stephens will be the smaller man, which doesn’t play into Klose’s power very well. I still expect Drakkar to make a run in the rankings and this fight should be a good start for him.

Prediction: Klose, Unanimous Decision

Andrei Arlovski vs Chase Sherman

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Now I know the last few entires have been long, so I got you on this one. The latter half of Andrei Arlvoski’s career has been him turning back hot prospects. He has become a Top 15 gatekeeper at Heavyweight and he will look to Gandolf another young striker this weekend. Arlovski, the Former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is one spot above Jeremy Stephens at 3rd on the All-Time UFC Appearances list. He has won 2 of his last 3, but dropped a submission loss to Tom Aspinall in his last bout. Chase Sherman is working on his 2nd stint in the UFC. He went 2-5 from August, 2016 to September, 2018 before being cut his first time around. But after being kinda good at Bare Knuckle Boxing and picking up a win against Ike Villanueva, he is getting his biggest opportunity ever against Andrei. There is only one question to this fight. Is Sherman good enough to beat Andrei? Thats been the question for the last 5 Arlovski fights. This time, Andrei has the edge. He is still a durable, intelligent, and powerful fighter who has looked good against recent opponents. I do not believe Sherman to be a player in the Top 15, and that's my criteria to beat Arlovski

Prediction: Arlovski, Unanimous Decision

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Jacob Malkoun

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I honestly don’t understand the matchmaking here. Alhassan is a previously scorching hot prospect who has cooled down tremendously in the past 3 years. He started his UFC career off with a massive bang, securing 3 highlight reel KO’s in his first 4 fights with 2 being under 1 minute. That was a lot of numbers. Since capping off his KO streak with a win over fringe Top 15 fighter Niko Price, he has fallen off completely. He was out for 2 years with legal problems, then came back and lost 2 in a row. He was picked apart by underdog Mounir Lazzez and KO’d stiff by Khaos Williams. He also missed weight for both fights. Now he is moving up and the UFC is desperate to get his name some shine again. Now for the part I don’t understand. Jacob Malkoun is a grappler. He has competed and found success at the world level, but the UFC keeps matching him up with brutal strikers. I said he feels a bit like a sacrificial lamb in my fighter previews, and I still feel the same way. Malkoun was KO’d in 18 seconds by Phil Hawes in his debut, and Alhassan is a more dangerous version of Hawes. I feel like Malkoun could probably develop a law suit against Uncle Dana and Sean Shelby. Or he could just get a takedown. Anyways, I would be shocked if Alhassan doesn’t win and even more surprised if its not by KO. Kinda makes me want to root for Malkoun.

Prediction: Alhassan, KO, Round 1

Luis Pena vs Alex Munoz

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“Violent Bob Ross” vs Alex Munoz is a solid banger to open up the Main Card. Both men will be looking to keep the fight standing and use crisp, fast shots to do their damage. Pena, a former Ultimate Fighter contestant, has been promising inside the octagon, but hasn’t made out very well with the judges. 2 of his 3 UFC losses have come by Split Decision. Both fights were close, but Pena could have been awarded the victory in either matchup. Alex Munoz is a Dana White’s Contender Series alum who is looking to build some traction in the Lightweight division. Munoz won his fight on the Contender Series in what was one of the most high profile fights in the show's short history. Munoz defeated the highly touted, and one-armed, Nick Newell in the Main Event. Previous to that matchup, Newell had only lost to Justin Gaethje. Despite winning, Munoz would not be awarded a contract. Another win in the regional scene earned him a short notice debut against Nasrat Haqparast. Munoz would lose, but earn some respect from the fans against the streaking Haqparast. Now both men are coming off a loss and looking to make a statement on the Main Card. I think both of these guys could have a future in the division, but I’m slightly leaning towards Munoz. He looked great on the Contender Series and showed flashes against Haqparast. Alex will come in as the underdog, but Pena’s inconsistency makes it hard for me to side with him. I see Munoz picking up his first UFC victory in a close 3 round war.

Prediction: Munoz, Unanimous Decision

Prelim Quickie

Alexander Romanov vs Juan Espino

Just one prelim quickie this week, and it goes to the big boys! Former Ultimate Fighter winner Juan Espino is looking to take the 0 from Alexander Romanov's record. I think this is a much more compelling fight than the Arlovski bout, but I understand the placement on the card with Andrei’s name value. This fight is fascinating because each man’s strategy opens up the other mans strategy. Romanov is incredibly powerful in the clinch. He is an absolute mauler with a perfect 13-0 record with 13 finishes. Yeah, never lost, never went to a decision. He is 2-0 with 2 submission victories in the UFC so far. But Juan Espino’s forte is also on the ground. Espino, a BJJ Black Belt, is happy to tussle on the ground with Romanov. Juan is 10-1 professionally and 2-0 with 2 submission victories in the UFC. Seriously, these guys are basically the same fighter. But I’m going to lean Romanov, just because he is more vicious. But this is an absolute toss up. This honestly might be the best fight on the card outside of the Main Event.

Prediction: Romanov, TKO, Round 2

Hoops & Hooks 2021 Predictions: 39-20