NBA Finals Preview: 3 Keys for Each Team Heading into Game 1

(nba.com)

The Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns have officially made it to the NBA Finals. For Phoenix, this will mark their first Finals showing since 1993. For the Bucks, this will be their first appearance since ’74. A win for Phoenix would be their first in franchise history and a huge milestone for the franchise and city. The Suns have historically fallen short throughout their entire history. The Bucks have been favorites in the East for the past couple years behind their 2x MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, but have also failed to get over the hump in the past few years. So now that they are here, what does each team have to do to avoid another familiar Playoff loss?

Milwaukee Bucks:

1. How does Giannis Look?

(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

This may seem obvious, but the Bucks need Giannis at 100% if they want any chance at winning this series. “The Greek Freak” has been out for the past 2 games after suffering a hyperextended knee in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks were able to get by the Hawks without him, but the Suns are a different animal. Phoenix’s multitude of defensive wings and high paced offensive attack will be a massive burden on Milwaukee without Giannis. If Antetokounmpo even comes out at 50%, I don’t believe the Bucks will feel comfortable. Giannis has an attacking style on both sides of the ball. He is not a player you can hide on the perimeter if you’re the Bucks. His inability to shoot the ball will make him unplayable on the offensive end if he's missing his burst. Giannis must be 100% healthy if the Bucks want to take home the gold.

2. Which Khris Middleton are we Getting?

(Australian AP)

There have been times this Playoffs where Khris Middleton has looked like a Top 10 player in the league. There have also been times throughout these Playoffs were Middleton hasn’t even looked like a Top 10 player on the Bucks. When Khris has it going, he is absolutely elite. Middleton basically eliminated the Hawks by himself when he busted out for 23 points, including 16 straight, in just the 3rd quarter of Game 6 of the Eastern Finals. His ability to shoot over defenders from 3 and in the midrange at a high level as been remarkable, but is also very streaky. The Bucks struggle mightily when Middleton isn’t shooting the ball well, even if Giannis is also on the floor. When he’s on, he’s Paul George like; when he’s off, he’s very “Andrew Wigginsy”. Middleton has yet to string together a series without a dud so far, but he’s also single handedly responsible for more than one of the Bucks Playoff wins this year. Khris Middleton could the biggest X-factor on either side of the ball this Finals.

3. How does Milwaukee Defend Booker & Paul?

(Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports)

Devin Booker and Chris Paul are the biggest reasons the Suns have made it this far. Paul's ability to control the game from the point guard position is unmatched by very few in the history of the game. Booker is one of the brightest, most ferocious, scorers in the league today. With all that being said, the Bucks do have the tools to guard them effectively if they play their cards right. Perimeter defense is the main focal point for the Bucks and it all starts with Jrue Holiday. Holiday is a multiple time NBA All-Defensive team member, including a First Team nod this year. He will be stuck on either Booker or Paul, but he can’t be on both. Giannis will likely start on either Deandre Ayton or Jae Crowder, which leaves either Khris Middleton or PJ Tucker to guard the Suns other option. I believe the best course of action would be to stick Holiday on Chris Paul and Tucker on Booker. Tucker was brought onto this team because of his toughness and defensive ability. He should be able to stay in front of Booker effectively. The downside to Tucker is his tendency to foul. If he gets in foul trouble early, this could force Holiday to then guard Booker, leaving Paul with a favorable matchup. Most of the Bucks bench, besides OG Bobby Portis, come in to provide offensive help to Giannis. If their front line gets in foul trouble early, you could see the Suns backcourt running wild in Game 1.

Phoenix Suns

1. How do they Handle the Moment?

(Matt York/AP)

Unlike the Bucks, and basically every team in this year’s Playoffs, the Suns don’t really have to worry about injuries coming into this Finals. All their best players are healthy and ready for a seven game series. The Suns disadvantage is in the experience category. Phoenix has a very, very young team. The addition of Chris Paul in the offseason excelerated the growth of their young stars, but even Paul lacks experience in the Finals. The only key rotation player on this team with Finals experience is Jae Crowder, but his only Finals appearance came in the Bubble with no crowd. We are going to find out very early how the Suns stars handle this moment. Thankfully, Game 1 is in Phoenix and I think that makes a huge difference for the Suns. Home court is actually massive for confidence of the Suns young roster.

2. Can Ayton Outwork Brook Lopez?

(The Athletic)

A common theme throughout this run for Phoenix has linked good Deandre Ayton games with wins for the Suns. When he has a real impact on the game, it is extremely difficult for defenses to build out to the Suns perimeter shooters. Ayton’s game has grown exponentially since joining forces with Chris Paul. Paul's ability to put the young Center in the best position to score off pick and rolls has been a masterpiece to watch. Ayton’s hustle and touch around the rim, combined with his now boosted CP3 powers, has allowed him to be a real needle mover for the Suns. I don’t think they get past the Lakers in the first round or the Clippers last round without Deandre. This series will be the first time this Playoffs Ayton is going to get beat up a little bit. Throughout this run, Ayton has been able to outwork the slowish feet of Andre Drummond, outperform every Clipper big man, and match MVP Nikola Jokic in the strength department. Bucks center Brook Lopez will be his first real strong matchup. Lopez has built a career of being an extremely strong and energetic big man. His touch around the rim and ability to move his feet on defense will force Ayton to stay honest on him and not look to help on drives. Lopez’s improved 3 point shooting will also keep Ayton away from the paint in half court sets. It’s funny to think that this might be the most important head to head matchup of the Playoffs. Big men are cool, just watch the last 50 years of basketball.

3. Do the Role Players Show Up?

(Michael Gonzales/Getty Images)

The Suns have made it to the Finals as an entire group. They play and compete as a team on both sides of the floor. Key role players like Mikal Bridges, Cameron Payne, and Cameron Johnson have been pleasant surprises and the reason for a few of the Suns wins. Phoenix needs at least one of their role players to show up in every game of these Finals. The Bucks are going to want to play a high paced game and shoot a lot of 3s. The Suns are going to need their fresh legs to be just that, fresh legs. They are going to need them to compete on both sides of the ball and make shots. We have seen great shotmaking from Crowder, Payne, Johnson, and even Dario Saric at points this year. We have also seen games where those guys disappear and Paul, Booker, and Ayton have to combined for too many points. Both of these teams are built as a whole. They are not reliant on one superstar to carry them to the promise land. The Bucks have the advantage in having the best player in the series. If Phoenix wants to take control of this series, their bench is going to have to dominated Milwaukee’s.