UFC 264 - Fight Previews & Predictions
- benwilley18
- Jul 9, 2021
- 7 min read
(Reddit)
(UFC)
Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier will wrap up their remarkable trilogy Saturday night at UFC 264. Each man holds a KO win over the other and will be looking to prove themselves as the superior mixed martial artist. McGregor took the first W of the series 7 years ago at UFC 178. Conor was in rare form throughout the buildup to that bout. He made Dustin furious and forced him to fight through emotion, instead of strategy. This is what made Conor so electrifying to watch throughout his early run. His ability to defeat his opponent before the fight even started.
(Getty Images)
Now, 7 years later, Dustin Poirier is a much more mature and calculated fighter. Conor eased up on the trash talk 100% for the 2nd bout. He represented himself as a family man who was excited to put on a show for the fans. There was no animosity whatsoever between the two men, which, in my opinion, was a huge advantage for Dustin. Once the fight began, Dustin’s activity in the sport showed. He butchered McGregor with low calf kicks, a surprisingly painful technique that surfaced in MMA only a few years ago. Conor was not ready to check the kick, and it cost him the fight.
(The Athletic)
The third time around is starting to look like a combination of the first two fights. Conor, well, he’s being a dick again. Pardon my language. But Dustin isn’t nearly as rattled as he was in 2014. He has been composed throughout fight week. Kinda feels like he knows he can knock him out. Dustin will enter the fight as the more complete fighter. His jiujitsu and wrestling is much better than Conor’s. Conor will remain the more heavy handed, and frankly better, striker. His power is still much more dangerous than Dustin’s. McGregor should come out of the gate aggressive, but not in the boxing heavy stance he showed in the second bout.
(Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC.)
A prediction is tough for a few reasons. I like both guys a lot and would like to see them win. Also, I really have no idea who’s gonna win the fight. I may be a bandwagon boy, but I’m going with Conor. He was landing huge shots on the feet in the 2nd fight and has always been a better fighter when he remains active. He also has a history of great performances in rematches. Give me McGregor with the hands in a back and forth scrap.
Prediction: McGregor, TKO, Round 1
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Gilbert Burns vs. Wonderboy is an incredibly intriguing fight for the upper echelon of the Welterweight division. Gilbert Burns is coming off a TKO loss to the Champion Kamaru Usman in February in what was his first crack at the Title. Since moving up to 170, Burns has looked like an absolute murderer. His jiujitsu is among the best in the UFC, just check his 3 WORLD Championships as proof, but it’s his striking that has taken him to another level. A KO win over Demian Maia and a battering of former Champion Tyron Woodley showed Burns to be a fresh, malicious contender at 170.
(Buda Mendes/Getty Images)
Stephen Thompson is almost the opposite. “Wonderboy,” who’s now a 38 year old veteran, has been a mainstay of the Top 5 for the better part of the last decade. His mastery of karate has made him a fan favorite, as well as one of the best in the world. Thompson has had two cracks at the title, both against Tyron Woodley. The first bout was a banger, but ended in a draw. The 2nd fight was terrible, and Woodley won by decision. Since then, “Wonderboy” has racked up wins against the best up and comers of the division. Thompson has defeated many young bucks, but doesn’t want to be seen as a gatekeeper of the division. This will be Thompson’s first fight against an opponent ranked ahead of him since fighting for the belt. He has put his number on the line for the past 5 years and still remains at #4.
(ufc.com)
When it comes to the fight itself, it’s very simple, if Burns can get it to the ground, it’s go time. Wonderboy’s strategy is going to be to remain on the outside of strikes and pick Burns apart. The dirtier the fight is, the better it is for Gilbert. Burns is the stronger man, but Thompson is much faster. It is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. I’m leaning Thompson in my pick for this fight. Burns has shown big power and great grappling, but takedown defense has always been a strength of Thompson. Burns also struggled to close the distance against Usman, which eventually lead to a TKO loss. I’d love to see Wonderboy get one more crack at the title before it’s all said and done.
Prediction: Thompson, Unanimous Decision
Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy
(youtube.com/UFC)
Everyone's favorite Australian Heavyweight and everyone’s least favorite NFL Linebacker are going to throw bombs on Saturday night. Tai Tuivasa used to be a really promising Contender at Heavyweight. He was a young buck climbing the through the Heavyweight ranks with big hands and a big personality. Once Tai reached the top of the mountain, things went south. He reached the Top 10 of the division, but then dropped 3 straight fights. He has since bounced back with two wins, but he needs another, maybe two more, to get back into the Top 15. His opponent, Greg Hardy, ain’t really my favorite guy in the world. Most people know him as the guy who was kicked out of the NFL for domestic violence charges. He has shifted his life to MMA, and he’s doing okay I guess. So far he has beat up on some favorable matchups and lost to anyone ranked in the division. My gripe is with the UFC signing and promoting this man. I don’t believe he deserves any shine in the sporting world anymore and I don’t believe any attention should be payed his way. With that being said, I “objectively” think Tai is gonna mess him up.
Prediction: Tai Tuivasa, Unanimous Decision
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Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya could possibly be a Number One Contender fight for the Women’s Bantamweight Division. Both women are coming off impressive wins over top contenders and would easily have a claim towards the belt with a win. The Bantamweight division is being ruled by a dominant queen at the moment. Amanda Nunes has cleaned out most the of division at this point. She holds wins over the #1 ranked and #2 ranked contenders and is currently set to defend her belt against #6 Julianna Pena next. This is why I believe the winner of this fight will be next. Nunes is defending against #6 next. The winner of this fight will likely move into #3 at 135. Aldana and Kunitskaya are both pressure heavy strikers. Both ladies want to overwhelm their opponent with volume and pace. Aldana holds the power advantage over Yana, and it’s not really close. Irene hold massive power in her hands that is rarely seen in the division. With that being said, Kunitskaya is a veteran and should hold an advantage in the grappling department. Aldana already had a Number One Contender fight in her last matchup with Holly Holm. Unfortunately for Aldana, Holly was able to pick her apart from the outside and looked like prime Holm the entire night. But, unfortunately for Holm, she’s already gotten beat up by Nunes and nobody really wanted to see that fight again. I believe Aldana will eventually get a shot at the belt and I feel this is her best shot. Yana has shown an ability to get overwhelmed by stronger, more elite fighters. I think the power in Aldana’s hands will be a difference maker and a key to her route to victory.
Prediction: Aldana, Unanimous Decision
“Sugar” Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho
(youtube.com/UFC)
This is an odd matchup to start off the PPV. If O’Malley wasn’t the Red Corner for this fight, I think it might have been replaced with one of the prelims. The story goes like this; O’Malley was originally scheduled to fight Louis Smolka in this spot. Smolka is a veteran in the UFC who has seen success in more than one division. That fight makes sense for the PPV opener. But, Smolka got staph infection and had to pull out of the fight on just 10 days notice. So, in steps Kris Moutinho. Moutinho will be making his UFC debut in a very, very high profile spot. O’Malley is one of the brightest rising stars in the sport and Moutinho is going to have to figure him out quickly. O’Malley holds massive power in his hands and already has a UFC KO highlight reel building up. But despite what the internet will make you believe, Moutinho isn’t a slouch. He holds a 9-4 record on the regional scene and has experience fighting UFC caliber talent. But, I’ll keep it short, I don’t think he wins. O’Malley’s hand speed and massive punching power should net him another KO Saturday night.
Prediction: O’Malley, KO, Round 2
Prelim Quickies:
Ryan Hall vs Ilia Topuria
Two of the most interesting unranked fighters in the Featherweight division go at it on the prelims. This fight is honestly better than a couple of the Main Card fights. Hall is a former Ultimate Fighter winner and an absolute wizard on the ground. This is a quickie so I won’t go in depth, but Google his heel hook over BJ Penn. Ilia Topuria is a ball of power and pace. He looks for the kill for 15 minutes straight and is very well rounded. I love this fight, and I love both guys, but give me Hall.
Prediction: Hall, Unanimous Decision
Niko Price vs Michel Pereira
If you’re drinking Saturday night, first, be responsible, second, this will be your favorite fight by far. Both these men are unapologetic wild men. Niko Price has some of the most unorthodox finishes in the sport. He has KO’d a man off his back twice in the UFC. One with hammer fists and one with an upkick. Michel Pereira literally does backflips in the cage. His cardio is insane and he does blatantly crazy shit all the time. He slaps instead of punches, he runs up the cage, he once tried to stomp a guy’s head and almost got DQ’d. This fight is going to be bonkers. Michel is a massive man, so I think he controls most of the positions.
Prediction: Pereira, Unanimous Decision
Hoops & Hooks 2021 Predictions: 54-27
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