UFC Vegas 23 - Fight Previews and Predictions
- benwilley18
- Apr 9, 2021
- 8 min read
(UFC)
(Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC.)
Kevin Holland has officially saved the day once again. “The Italian Dream” Marvin Vettori is back to take on Holland in the Main Event on Saturday. Dana and the UFC didn’t initially book these two together, but it has turned out to be a pretty interesting style matchup. Vettori was supposed to fight lethal kickboxer and rawdog legend Darren Till. Till is ranked #4 and would’ve been the biggest fight of Vettori’s career. But an unfortunate broken collarbone forced Till out of the bout just 2 weeks before the scheduled walk. As we saw throughout the pandemic, if anyone if down for a fight, it's Holland. Holland went 5-0 in 2020 in just 7 months. He showcased a dynamic striking arsenal and an ability to KO anyone. But Holland’s potential weakness was exploited in his last bout. Just two weeks ago, Holland headlined UFC Vegas 22 against Derek Brunson. Brunson, an All-American wrestler, was able to control Holland the whole fight and coast to a Unanimous Decision victory. This doesn’t bode for Holland, as Vettori is known for his crippling grappling. Marvin has suffocated his last 4 opponents on his way to the Top 5 of the division. He has looked like a real threat to the title and one of the most physically strong fighters in the division. This is why I’m leaning Vettori. While I admire the cajones of Holland, I think Vettori is a better Brunson. Marvin has shown an ability to not be KO’d on the feet, going 3 rounds with Izzy is proof, and a relentlessness with his pressure. Give me Vettori for the win and a rebooking of the Till fight. Love ya Kevin Holland, but this is your 2nd terrible matchup in a row.
Prediction: Vettori, Unanimous Decision
Sean Shelby deserves a round of applause for this booking. Like our Main Event, this was not the initial matchup. Allen was slated to get his first big step up in name value with a bout against veteran scrapper Jeremy Stephens. Stephens would’ve been a good test for Allen as he always brings the pressure to his opponents. But following an undisclosed injury on Jeremy’s part, the fight had to be scrapped. But in steps Sodiq Yusuff! Sodiq is a monster of a man and a better fight than Stephens. Jeremy was a good test for Allen, but one everyone expected him to pass. Sodiq Yusuff is one of the best and hottest prospects in the division. I like to call these fights “there aint enough room for the both of us in this town” fights. There is only room for one young lion to rise into the Top 5. Instead of the UFC waiting and hoping they both continue to win, they threw a t-bone steak in the middle and watched it go down. And I love it! Yusuff brings explosiveness everywhere. His punching power is great and his athleticism is off the charts. He possesses a ton of raw talent and skill, but Allen is ranked higher for a reason. He may look like an innocent British kid, but he is also a killer. Allen hasn’t lost a fight since June, 2016 and is currently on a 9 fight winning streak. 7 of those wins have come in the UFC. Neither man has suffered defeat in the UFC yet, and if I had to choose, I think Allen has the leg up. Yusuff is incredibly explosive, but relies on his power shots too often. Sort of like Tyron Woodley. He has a tendency to get into fire fights and has been in trouble in multiple UFC fights. He was even almost finished by Gabriel Benitez. Allen has been dominant since his debut and I really believe him to be elite in the division. I guess we will see, but kudos to the matchmakers for this awesome short notice fight.
Prediction: Allen, Unanimous Decision
Sam Alvey vs Julian Marquez
(youtube.com/UFC)
I find this fight very odd for some reason. Maybe cause it never crossed my mind for these two men to fight, but its not a bad matchup. Sam Alvey is returning to his more natural weight class of 185 after a disastrous stint at 205. Alvey went 2-4-1 at Light Heavyweight, being KO’d twice in that run. He is currently on a 4 fight losing streak with a draw sprinkled on top. He hasn’t won since June, 2018, but Middleweight is his better division. He went 8-5 in 13 Middleweight appearances before moving up. He will be greeted by Julian Marquez. Marquez is an absolute character. He broke into the UFC through a nasty head kick on Dana White’s Contender Series and has looked impressive since. He would be riding a 7-fight winning streak if judges weren’t terrible, but he does officially have one Split Decision loss in the UFC. Marquez has looked like a future Top 15 contender at points. He finished Top 15 gatekeeper Darren Stewart in what was probably his best performance and seemed poised for a ranking. Following the loss but not loss, he was matched up with Maki Pitolo. Pitolo is a bomb thrower, but Marquez was the big favorite. He did pull out the win in the end, but lost the first 2 rounds and if Maki had better cardio he probably would’ve lost the 3rd. If we see the Marquez from the Stewart fight, it will be a long night for Alvey. But Alvey is a veteran who has spent his own time inside the Top 15 at Middleweight. He holds good power in his hands at 185 and still seems quick late in his career. Unfortunately, this feels like a “time to leave fight.” A “time to leave fight” is my term for when a veteran gets matched up with a young lion to speed up the retirement process. Look at Little Nog vs Rumble Johnson as an example. This feels like Alvey’s “time to leave fight.” He is only 34, but has not won in 2 and a half years. Maybe he can tear it up in Bellator, but it seems like Dana has a plan here.
Prediction: Marquez, TKO, Round 1
Nina Nunes, formerly Nina Ansaroff until yesterday, is back to take on one of the best prospects in the Strawweight division, Mackenzie Dern. Nunes is a veteran of the MMA game currently riding the best run of her career. Since moving to American Top Team and training with her wife Amanda, as well as the dozens of other UFC fighters at ATT, she has looked like a sharper, and frankly, better fighter. Since moving to ATT, Nunes has strung together wins against elite fighters like Angela Hill, Randa Markos, and former Title Challenger Claudia Gadelha. She is coming off a loss in her most high profile fight, a Unanimous Decision loss to Ultimate Fighter winner Tatiana Suarez. Since the loss, she has had a kid and is now back to fighting. She will be welcomed back by fellow mom fighter Mackenzie Dern. Dern is one of the most accomplished jiujitsu practitioners in all of the sport. Whether men or women, doesn’t matter. Dern is a 5-time World Jiujitsu Champion. She won her first professional tournament at 14! Similarly to Nunes, her run has only been derailed by one loss. Dern is 5-1 in the UFC with 3 submission finishes. She has shown a Demian Maia like ability to get the fight to the ground, but also showed increased striking skills under her new coach Jason Parillo. Dern also lost her most high profile fight to date, a prospect showdown with powerful striker Amanda Ribas. Now, Nunes and Dern are each other’s new most high profile fight yet. This fight is huge for the career of both women. Nunes is at the door of a title shot. If she wins, she will be firmly in the Top 4 of the division and would likely be booked in a #1 Contenders Fight. A win for Dern would mean a Top 6 ranking next to her name and her first fight inside the Top 5. As I alluded to earlier, Dern has begun to round out her name. This is why I think she gets it done. Her grappling is second to none and a decent striking game could be enough to pressure her opponent to the ground. Nina has struggled with people who can control the ground and clinch situations in the past as well. I hate to bet against anything to do with the GOAT Amanda Nunes, but I think Dern wins the battle of the moms.
Prediction: Dern, Submission, Round 1
Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez
(youtube.com/UFC)
If you haven’t already, please go to my fighter previews and read about the life and times of Mike Perry. He is the funniest, but most worrisome fighter on the roster. His highlights include sleeping an old man at a bar, going to rehab twice, and having his pregnant GF as his only coach. Although he is a tough, veteran fighter, Perry has fallen on hard times recently. After impressive wins over Paul Felder and Alex Oliveira, Mike seemed like he would at least turn out to be a gatekeeper of the Top 10. Instead, Perry was booked against 2 of the meanest prospects on the roster and lost both times. Granted, Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal are both elite, championship caliber fighters. But after the losses, Perry’s life started to turn. Despite a win over Mickey Gall with only his GF in his corner, his 2 stints to rehab and a loss to Tim Means have even the most die hard “Platinum” fans a bit worried. Now let’s get to Rodriguez. He deserves the spotlight of Main Card opener. Rodriguez has been starching people since breaking into the UFC. After an unsuccessful stint on Dana White’s Contender Series that saw him win but not be awarded a contract, he has broken through in a big way. He got his shot on the big show against Tim Means. Means was a massive favorite, but was dismantled by Rodriguez’s pressure and power punching. D-Rod finished Means with a submission in the 2nd round. Since then, he has racked up wins over Gabe Green and Dwight Grant. Daniel suffered his first UFC loss in an incredibly close fight against Nicholas Dalby in his last time out. Now he is getting his biggest opportunity yet against Perry. If you have read this far into the article, this might sound crazy, but I actually think Perry is going to win. Rodriguez has shown a tendency to leave himself open and has gotten rocked in every appearance besides the Means fight. His fight against Dwight Grant was dangerously close to being stopped. I believe Perry has the veteran savvy to get away from D-Rod’s attacks. He is also much better in the clinch and I would give him the slight advantage in jiujitsu. There is a real chance D-Rod knocks Mike’s head off, but I think Perry takes home the W. I wonder who his coach will be this time. Maybe his mom. Or his ex-wife!! Or that old dude he knocked out!
Prediction: Perry, Unanimous Decision
Prelim Quickies:
Scott Holtzmann vs Mateusz Gamrot
For the sake of the name, I’ll keep it quick, but I really could go in depth about this fight. Holtzmann is a UFC veteran who has been on the cusp of the Top 15 for what seems like forever now. Losses to Josh Emmett and Beniel Dariush have halted his runs in the past. Gamrot is a hot prospect who disappointed in his debut. Well actually, our best friend the judges disappointed. Gamrot had a very close fight against Guram Kutateladze in October, 2020. Both men had their moments, but it seemed clear who the winner was. But the judges decided to pull the old switcheroo again. Kutateladze admitted in the octagon after the fight that he even felt he lost the bout. Now Gamrot has a chance to redeem himself against a veteran. But guess what?!?! I don’t think he does. Holtzmann is tough as nails and is a challenge for anyone in the division.
Prediction: Holtzmann, Unanimous Decision
Jack Shore vs Hunter Azure
Jack Shore is one of the hottest names at 135 right now. The former Cage Warriors Bantamweight Champion is 2-0 with 2 submission finishes since joining the UFC. He is also undefeated professionally with a record of 13-0. Hunter Azure is 3-1 since his appearance on the Contender Series, with wins over Cole Smith and Ultimate Fighter Winner Brad Katona. Azure enters this fight as a slight underdog, and I think that sums up the fight. It is a relatively close booking, but if Jack Shore is what we think he is, he’ll get the job done.
Prediction: Shore, TKO, Round 2
Hoops & Hooks 2021 Predictions: 34-18
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