UFC Vegas 18: Full Fight Previews and Predictions

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Overeem vs Volkov- The UFC heavyweight division is incredibly slow-moving, and now with Jon Jones basically locked into the next title shot, there is a row on contenders left to beef up their resume. Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov have a great opportunity to move one step closer and eliminate the other from title contention in the main event Saturday. The UFC has formed a small tournament to decide who is deserving of a heavyweight title shot after Jon Jones. This main event Saturday, along with Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis on February 20, will help add some order to the division. A battle of two strikers, fans should expect this fight to primarily stay on the feet. Both men carry great power in their hands and a lifetime of striking knowledge. Overeem has been knocking people out since the Yakuza ran the MMA game and Volkov has a highlight real of finishes to show off his ability to manage range at the heavyweight level. Volkov is slightly younger and has looked great in his UFC tenure, with the exception of the last 10 seconds of the Derrick Lewis fight and a Curtis Blaydes fight we’d all like to forget. Overeem has been able to pull out wins as of late, but was hurt badly in his last two fights against Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai.

Prediction: Volkov, TKO/KO, Round 2

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Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar- Let’s take a time machine back to January 2020. Everything was blissful in a pre-Covid society. Life is Good by Future and Drake played over your car speakers and Future Hendrix wasn’t lying. Life was good. Cory Sandhagen was coming off the biggest win of his career against Raphael Assuncao by unanimous decision. Frankie Edgar was still a top 5 player in the UFC’s featherweight division and coming off a loss to Max Holloway for the belt. These two fighters seemed to be going in different directions in their careers, but Edgar had other ideas. He decided to move down to bantamweight, the division he was probably always built best for, and give it a run. With Frankie being a UFC veteran and still very competitive at 145, he was matched with the up and coming Sandhagen. Sandhagen was excited for the bout on first announcement seeing it as a great opportunity and a massive name for his resume. Edgar saw the fight as his way to get a win over a young stud in a new division. But Frankie also saw something else. Something undead lurking in the bushes of South Korea. Frankie opted out of the Sandhagen booking last minute to replace Brian Ortega in a bout against “The Korean Zombie.” He remained at 145 for the fight with “Zombie” was full speed ahead for another title shot at 145. Until “Zombie” starched him. Bad. Frankie looked very small in the octagon and was finished in a little over 3 minutes. This was Edgar’s 2nd time being knocked out in 4 fights after never being knocked out for the first 28 fights of his career. Edgar decided to fully commit to 135 and came away with a win over Pedro Munhoz in August. Sandhagen earned himself a number one contender fight in the meantime, which he lost to Aljamain Sterling, but rebounded with a highlight reel knockout of Marlon Moraes. And now we’re here. Full circle. Sandhagen is looking to notch the biggest name of his career on Saturday night while Frankie is looking to show that he isn’t to be counted out. I see this fight mostly playing out on the feet, with Cory managing distance and Frankie attempting to explode inside the range with quick shots. I believe this is the best fight of the night, but I think Cory’s ability to manage range and his size and reach advantage will be too much.

Prediction: Sandhagen, Unanimous Decision

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Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida- This is a battle between two veterans looking for a win. Michael Johnson has one of the strangest UFC careers to date. Coming off The Ultimate Fighter season 12, where he finished 2nd, he has matched some great wins with some terrible loses. Johnson’s hit list includes impressive names like Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Joe Lauzon. His losses to relatively unknown fighters like Stevie Ray, Reza “My Daddy” Madadi, and Paul Sass have stopped him from ever solidifying himself as a true contender in the division. His opponent, Clay Guida, is the definition of cardio. Guida is notorious for his insanely high output and energy. He is often seen doing laps around the cage AFTER the fight. Absolute wild man. Guida has blessed UFC with classic fights against Roger Huerta and Diego Sanchez, the latter being inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame’s fight wing. Clay will be the smaller man against Johnson, but that will play into his strengths. Johnson is going to want this fight primarily on the feet, Guida will not. If Clay can engage the clinch and work takedowns the fight is his. Johnson is going to look to stick and move to keep his distance.

Prediction- Guida, Unanimous Decision

Update: This fight was added to the main card after the cancelation of Marion Reneau vs Macy Chiasson due to Covid-19.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape- In my individual fighter breakdown and preview, I compared Manel Kape to a flyweight Michael Chandler. And this fight is the flyweight version of Chandler vs Hooker. This fight introduces a scary new prospect to the division who has yet to step into the ring, but carries a belief that he is the best in the world. His opponent a veteran who has shared the cage with world champions and number one contenders, but has never been able to secure the W. See its just like Chandler vs Hooker! Manel Kape enters the UFC flyweight division as the next big thing. The former Rizin bantamweight champion already has some clout within the division. In another scary parallel to UFC 257’s co-main event, Kape was chosen as the backup to the recent flyweight title fight in December. Before he even had a fight, he was the backup for the strap. I’m sure this placement didn’t sit well with other flyweight contenders, including Pantoja. Pantoja has certainly been impressive since coming off The Ultimate Fighter. He has secured many impressive wins in the division including 2 over the number one contender Brandon Moreno. In a sleeper banger of a card, this is a sleeper banger of a fight. I could see it going either way. Both men carry good power for the division. But this is like those weird similarities between Abe Lincoln and JFK where everything matches, and Chandler won last week, so I’ll go out on a limb and pick the new guy.

Prediction: Kape, Split Decision

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Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar- I won’t spend more time on this fight than needed. Cody Stamann has had a hard time gaining traction in the UFC bantamweight division. After opening his career 3-0, including a win over contender Bryan Caraway, Stamann’s hype has stalled. He dropped a bout to Aljamain Sterling, no shame in that by the way, and went to a draw with Song Yadong in his most high profile fights since. Askar Askar is facing a tough test. Askar is replacing Andre Ewell, who had to pull out of the fight on Monday. Askar is currently 11-1 with good wins in LFA. But I believe he is facing a big step up in competition for his first UFC bout.

Prediction: Stamann, Unanimous Decision

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Diego Ferreira vs Beniel Dariush 2- This fight is like when two really badass old dudes have a standoff at the bar. Nobody really knows what’s going on, but everyone is watching, and you know some cool shit is about to go down. These two first clashed in 2014 at UFC 179. Beniel came away with a clear cut victory and began a solid push into the top 10 of the division. It took a little longer for Ferreira to bloom, but once he did he looked incredible. Ferriera is currently riding a six fight win streak including a submission win over Anthony Pettis in his last fight. This fight is similar to their first fight and goes back to my old dudes analogy. They are in the same position as their past self, up and coming with a chance to crack into the big boys, but this time around they are both seasoned and ready. They are both wise with skill, like those two drunk guys having a standoff. Okay, it might be a stretch, but you get my point. I want these two to have to fight as much as possible, so give me Ferreira and a third match for the belt in 2024.

Prediction: Ferreira, Submission, Round 1

(ufc.com)

Prelim Quickies

Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques- Mike Rodriguez is the only man I’ve ever seen TKO his opponent and still lose. Danilo Marques is 1-0 in the UFC, but his overall record of 10-2 might be a bit deceiving. 2 fight ago Marques fought a man with an incredible record of 0-16 outside of the UFC. Give me Rodriguez on the ultimate revenge tour in this one.

Prediction- Rodriguez, KO/TKO, Round 1

Karol Rosa vs Joselyne Edwards- Karol Rosa was supposed to fight former UFC champ Nicco Montano on the main card. Montano was forced to pull out due to lingering issues involving a recent car accident. Joselyne Edwards is coming off a good win over Yanan Wu just 3 weeks ago and decided to keep it rolling. Is Edwards the female Khamzat? Probably not. But I do like her to spring the upset Saturday.

Prediction- Edwards, Unanimous Decision