UFC 261 - Fight Previews & Predictions

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(C) Kamaru Usman vs #4 Jorge Masvidal 2 - UFC Welterweight Championship

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Kamaru Usman has begun his second lap around the UFC Welterweight Division. Usman’s first Title Rematch will come against his most brash rival, the infamous “Gamebred” Jorge Masvidal. Masvidal and Usman are certainly not the best of friends. Their beef has been brewing over the course of 3+ years and 2 fights. Their first time around was rushed. After the UFC’s negotiations with Masvidal fell through in early 2020, the UFC opted to give Gilbert Burns the Title Shot instead. Usman vs Burns was set to be the headliner of 251 on Fight Island. The plan was going smoothly, until about a week out from the event. Just 10 days out, Burns tested positive for Covid-19. The biggest card of the year had lost its headliner. This is when the UFC found some room to budge in those Masvidal negotiations. The two agreed on a price and Jorge was the replacement on just 10 days notice.

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Many of Masvidal's training partners, including the uncrowned Lightweight Champion Dustin Poirier, have said that Masvidal had been training for Usman before the fight was put together. Jorge knew his next opponent was likely to be the Champ after his win over Nathan Diaz. Despite this, Masvidal was still not at his fight weight for the week of the event. He was forced to cut 20 pounds before the fight. He did make weight, but the weight cut has been the primary excuse for his result that night. Once in the cage, Usman dominated. Although not the most exciting fight, Kamaru controlled Masvidal and beat him up for the better part of 25 minutes. The Champion retained by Unanimous Decision. Since then, Usman has made it up to Burns by kicking his ass too. Masvidal hasn’t fought since the loss to Usman, but his name was the first out of the mouth of the Champ after the win over Burns.

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Kamaru is basically forced to begin rematches with the contenders he’s already beaten. Jorge was chosen first by the Champ because of the dislike between the two and the weight cut excuse. Usman has said he doesn’t want to hear any excuses after this fight. The question here is; has Masvidal done enough work to keep Usman at distance? Also, was the weight cut as big a factor as we thought? If you ask me, I would say no to both. I believe this fight will look similar to the first. Usman looked better than ever in his TKO finish of Burns. Masvidal has always struggled with grapplers and the first fight was not close. I believe Usman gets the most high profile win of his career Saturday. Maybe after this fight people will start to realize how good Usman really is.

Prediction: Usman, Unanimous Decision

(C) Weili Zhang vs #1 Rose Namajunas - UFC Strawweight Championship

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Weili Zhang and Rose Namajunas is the best Title fight on the card. It is the closest matchup we have and my personal favorite fight of the night. In Zhang, we have a rapidly rising star with massive appeal. She is already one of the biggest stars for the Asian market in the history of the sport. Her insane power, speed, and athletic ability have made her a nightmare for everyone at 115. She has been able to work her way to the Championship and defend it in just 6 UFC fights. In Rose, we have maybe the best striker in the history of the division. Namajunas is a former Strawweight Champion with a big Championship experience edge on Zhang. Despite Rose having 13 Professional fights, this will be the 5th Championship fight of her UFC career. Weili has 22 Pro fights, but this is only her 3rd Title fight. Rose is one of the most fluid and talented strikers in the world, but she broke into the UFC with her impressive submission game. She did not TKO anybody until her Title winning victory over Joanna Jędrzejczyk in her 9th Pro fight. Prior to that, 5 of her 6 Pro wins came by submission. Rose is incredibly well rounded and long for the division.

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This fight represents a clash of striking styles. Weili is a fireball who will look to break your will with her relentless pressure. Rose is a master at distance striking and surprising her opponents with her lanky power. Weili is also a good grappler in the clinch, but the jiu jitsu advantage heavily goes to Rose. This is the best possible fight you could book in the division. These two women are the clear two best Strawweights in the world. Many people, including myself, believe Rose is still the best in the world, but Zhang has looked unbeatable since her debut. The prediction is hard, but I’m going with Rose. I believe she will be able to keep Weili at distance and land effectively. She is also at a large advantage if the fight hits the ground. This fight should be razor close, and don’t be surprised if the champ retains, but for now, I’m going with Thug Rose.

Prediction: Namajunas, Split Decision

(C) Valentina Shevchenko vs #1 Jessica Andrade - UFC Flyweight Championship

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Valentina Shevchenko is the most dominant Champion in the UFC right now. The way she obliterates all top contenders in her division is demoralizing to watch. Don’t get me wrong, its also awesome to watch. She has been a completely unstoppable force since the UFC introduced the Flyweight division. Shevchenko is the first, and so far only, Champion the division has ever seen. She has only lost 1 round in the division and went on to win that fight 4 rounds to 1.

(Kamil Krzaczynski/AP)

But, she is facing a new challenge this weekend with Jessica Andrade. Andrade is a veteran who is currently in her 3rd weight division. She entered the UFC when Bantamweight, 135 pounds, was the only women’s division available. After mixed success there, she went on a Championship run at Strawweight that saw her defeat Rose Namajunas for the Title. Now she is bringing her strong, stocky frame to the Flyweight division. Andrade holds uncommon power in her strikes. She is a ball of power on the feet, in the clinch, and on the ground. She overwhelms people with short striking and incredibly brute grappling. In her only fight at Flyweight so far, she finished #1 Contender Kaylyn Chookagian in the first round with a nasty body shot. Andrade is a handful for anyone, but Shevchenko has looked All-Time level dominant. I believe she could completely run the table at Flyweight if she wanted. Until she shows even the smallest wrinkle in her game, I would be an idiot to pick against her.

Prediction: Shevchenko, TKO, Round 2

#9 Uriah Hall vs #11 Chris Weidman 2

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Former Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman and All-Time Great TUF contestant Uriah Hall are set to rematch after a regional bout 10 years ago. The two first clashed very, very early in their careers at Ring of Honor 31 in 2010. The two were the Main Event for the Ring of Honor Vacant Middleweight Championship. It was the 3rd fight of Weidman’s career and the 5th of Hall’s. Both men were obviously very raw in the sport at the time. On the night, Weidman was able to hand Hall his first professional loss by TKO in the first round. Chris would go on to beat Anderson Silva for the Middleweight belt. Hall went on to be the most feared contestants in the history of The Ultimate Fighter. Hall demolished everyone he faced on the show and was being compared to Anderson Silva by the boss himself Dana White. But now 10 years later, both men are at the tail end of their careers.

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Weidman’s run has been less than stellar since losing the belt to Luke Rockhold. He is 2-4 in his last 6 fights, including a brief trip to Light Heavyweight where he was quickly KO’d by Dominick Reyes. Hall’s recent run, and his whole career actually, has been plagued by inconsistency. Just when you think Hall is going to string some wins together, he drops a Split Decision or gets TKO’d by the elite. Both these men are fighting to keep their name relevant in the division. So which one will succeed? I’m leaning Hall. Weidman has looked very, very slow in his last few appearances. His recent win over Omari Akhmedov was a good way to get his name back in the win column, but it was less than impressive. Hall’s last win came over his previous comparison point Anderson Silva, but his performance was also tentative and lackluster overall. With that being said, I do think Hall has more left in the tank than Weidman. He still holds one punch KO power and his quickness is miles ahead of Weidman, even later in their careers. Hall will finally get the revenge he’s been waiting 10 years for.

Prediction: Hall, Unanimous Decision

#6 Anthony Smith vs #13 Jim Crute

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Anthony Smith vs Jim Crute will serve as a solid opener to this banger of a Main Card. Smith is a former Light Heavyweight Title Challenger who has proven himself as a Top 10 talent at 205. He holds wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Volkan Oezdemir, and Devin Clark. He has settled into his position in the Light Heavyweight hierarchy, but he must avoid falling into the dreaded gatekeeper role. That is what Jim Crute is trying to turn Smith into Saturday night. Crute is one of the brightest young stars in the sport and certainly in the Light Heavyweight division. He is showing himself as a real prospect in a weight class that is lacking in new, fresh contenders. He is 4-1 in the UFC with 4 finishes since earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series.

(Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC.)

This fight with Smith is his first chance to really break into the title picture at 205. Crute has shown a very well rounded game so far in his career. Of his 12 Pro wins, 9 have come before the final bell. He holds 5 TKO wins and 4 submission wins throughout his career. Smith is also well rounded, having big power in his hands and an ever improving ground game. He is coming off an impressive triangle choke win over Devin Clark in his last fight. This fight has the sole purpose of seeing how legit Crute really is. I think he is a future contender in the division, and that’s why I’m also picking him to win. He has shown massive power and a slick submission game to go along with it. He is only 25 years old, while Smith is entering the back half on his career at age 32. Crute has shown flashes of brilliance that could take him all the way to a Title Shot at 205.

Prediction: Crute, Unanimous Decision

Prelim Quickies:

Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson

Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson is a matchup of two middleweights who are better than what their results show. Allen broke into the UFC in a big way. He secured a contract with a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series, and followed that up with a 3-0 UFC start. He defeated veteran scrappers Tom Breese and “Big Mouth” Kevin Holland on that run. Allen even cracked the Top 15 briefly before dropping his last fight to a returning Sean Strickland. Roberson began his UFC run as a hot prospect at Light Heavyweight. After at :14 second KO of now ranked contender Ryan Spann on the Contender Series, Roberson has been a model of inconsistency. Despite his success at Light Heavyweight, Roberson prefers to stay at Middleweight. He is 4-2 in the division, but has struggled against the elite of the division. His last fight was a loss to Marvin Vettori. The winner of this fight has a chance to get themselves into the bottom half of the Top 15. I’m gonna go with the guy that’s been more dynamic and has tasted the rankings before.

Prediction: Allen, Submission, Round 2

Tristan Connelly vs Pat Sabatini

There is nobody I am more subjectively rooting for than Tristan Connelly. The Canadian wrestling coach broke onto UFC fan’s radars in late 2019. Connelly stepped in on less than a week’s notice for a fight with Michel Pereira two weight divisions up from his fighting weight. Connelly will be competing at 145 this weekend. He challenged Pereira at 170. And Pereira is a big 170! It did not matter to Tristan, who controlled the fight with his grappling and gritty pressure style. He took 2 of the 3 rounds and won the fight by Unanimous Decision. Now, after some injuries, he is back against newcomer Pat Sabatini. Pat is a former CFFC Featherweight Champion with a well rounded game. He looks like a solid addition to the Featherweight division, but I already said I’m being bias. I'm on the Connelly train until the wheels fall off, which could very well be this weekend.

Prediction: Connelly, Unanimous Decision

Hoops & Hooks 2021 Predictions: 42-22