Explaining and Predicting the NBA’s New Play-In Tournament

(theathletic.com)

The NBA is expanding the Playoff field from 8 teams in each conference to 10 teams each. This is in an attempt to build more meaningful games and to discourage teams from tanking. 10 out of the 15 teams in each Conference have a chance to make the Playoffs, so most teams on the fringe will make a hard push instead of trading away assets and purposely getting worse at the trade deadline. The NBA has also flattened the lottery odds to discourage tanking. Both of these have been met with positive reviews, and we got a taste of the Play-In Tournament in the bubble. Portland and Memphis played a two game Play-In series to make it to the playoffs as the 8 seed. It was fun and added a new wrinkle to the Playoff experience.

(Kevin C. Cox/USA Today Sports)

So, let’s really break this thing down. After the success of last season, the NBA has decided to run with the Play-In Tournament again. Following the shortened 72 game regular season, the 7th seed in each conference will host a game against the 8th seed in each conference. The winner of that game becomes the 7th seed and plays the 2nd seed in the first round. The 8th seed waits and plays the winner of a game between the 9th seed and the 10th seed. The loser of the 9/10 game is eliminated. The winner of the following game between the 8th seed and the winner of the 9/10 game is awarded the 8th spot and matches up with the 1st seed in the Conference.

Personally, I like the new wrinkle to the Playoffs. More Playoff games means more games that matter, which means more fun basketball. Having a chance down the stretch to make the Playoffs means more crucial regular season games for teams typically out of the picture by the All-Star Break. This is a wrinkle that provides excitement to the middling teams more the elite ones. Sorry Spike!

Now that we understand what the hell is happening, let’s have some fun with it. Predicting the Play-In Tournament will be hard because we don’t know who will have a big second half and who will fall off. If you told me the Knicks would be the 5th seed at All-Star I’d probably slap you. With all that being said, here are my predictions.

East:

7th: New York Knicks

8th: Indiana Pacers

9th: Charlotte Hornets

10th: Washington Wizards

For the East, I have confidence in the Celtics, Bucks, Nets, and 76ers to be good enough to not even worry about this tournament. The Heat and Raptors are teams that could likely end up playing one of these games, but I think the veteran talent of each group can help them avoid it.

The Knicks have been great, but they are likely to come back to earth a bit. They would take on an Indiana Pacers team who has not looked like themselves this season. Under new Head Coach Nate Bjorkgren, the Pacers have struggled to remain above .500 while fighting injuries all year. They are likely the best team in the mix, but could go into the Playoffs without their full roster having any chemistry.

The Charlotte Hornets have been the best under-the-radar fun team to watch this year. They are in the mix with the Pacers and Knicks and I believe they are a step ahead of the bottom of the East. My 10th seed may be a bit stunning. The Washington Wizards have been a dumpster fire this season. Their 27th ranked defense hasn’t been able to stop a snowman throughout the first half of the year. But since starting their season 6-17, they have gone 8-3 and look like a more cohesive unit going into the All-Star Break. Washington still has Westbrook and Beal in the East and I believe in them more than the Bulls and Hawks.

(Rob Carr/Getty Images)

West:

7th: Dallas Mavericks

8th: Golden State Warriors

9th: San Antonio Spurs

10th: New Orleans Pelicans

This is why I like the idea of the Play-In Tournament. Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, Zion Williamson, and Patty Mills battling it out in the first round. Like the East, I have confidence in a few teams to be too good for this. The Lakers, Clippers, Jazz, Suns, Trail Blazers, and Nuggets will probably slide by. There’s your top 6 right there. The West is so deep that these games will actually be compelling from the jump. No pun intended. But it was slick right?

The first three seem like a lock to me. Dallas and Golden State will certainly make it and San Antonio has a better record than both of them. New Orleans gets my 10th seed simply because they have a better roster than Memphis. But the Grizzlies made it last year and have one of the best cultures in the NBA.

(Stephen Lew/USA Today Sports)

Overall the Play-In Tournament is a positive. It discourages shitty teams from being shitty on purpose and generates more important games. Fans don’t care about an abundance of Playoff games. I would accept more if they gave them to us! Fun basketball is fun basketball! Hopefully we see this tournament for years to come.